NSW Brain Injury Rehabilitation Forum May 2011

 

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An actuarial interpretation of improvements
after traumatic brain injury
DANIEL COOPER, Price Waterhouse Cooper Australia

 

Title: An actuarial interpretation of improvements after traumatic brain injury

Authors: Daniel Cooper, Price Waterhouse Coopers Australia, Neil Mackinnon, Lifetime care and Support Authority

Each year the NSW Lifetime Care and Support Authority commissions an actuarial assessment of the future cost of currently known participants in the scheme. This analysis is heavily reliant on predicting the extent to which people with a severe traumatic brain injury from a motor vehicle accident will have reductions in their level of care needs over time, especially in the first 2-3 years post injury.

Through use of existing participant experience we have built up a matrix model for each year post injury, using the Care and Needs Scale as an indicator of care needs. By considering a group of participants rather than any individual, we have been able to predict the future severity distribution of a single year cohort of brain injuries into the scheme, projected to various points in the future. For example only around 55% of participants initially assessed as a CANS level 7 will still require this level of care after one year.

This information has helped the L TCSA better plan for their future resourcing and capacity requirements. Further the financial impact of these improvements in severity can be very material in the context of the financial position of the scheme. The estimated difference in lifetime costs of a person with a lifetime CANS level of 7 compared to a person with a lifetime CANS level of 4 is more than $6 million